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RELATIVE VALUE

We analyze the impact of Indonesian Presidential election outcome on the Indonesian economy, select sectors and corporates under our coverage. We expect Subianto鈥檚 new administration to largely maintain policy continuity from the previous regime. The fundamental future trends for select sectors and corporates in the wake of the impending government were already factored into our analysis of the respective industries and corporates under our coverage. We note that spreads of the Indonesian corporates under our coverage were largely unchanged from a week ago, suggesting that markets had lately baked in expectations of Mr. Subianto鈥檚 win. We maintain our existing recommendations on the individual companies under our coverage.

FINANCIAL METRICS

Overview of Indonesia Presidential Election 2024

Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto looks poised to secure聽a first-round win in Indonesia’s 2024 Presidential Election that was held on 14 Feb-2024.聽Early vote counts suggested he secured a leading ~58% of votes, beating former Central Java governor Ganjar Pranowo (~25% of votes) and former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan (~17% of votes). Mr. Subianto will replace outgoing president Joko Widodo (Jokowi), who has served the maximum permissible 2 terms as President. Official results are expected to be released in March, with the elected President sworn in on 20 Oct-2024. We summarize the three presidential candidates below.

• Prabowo Subianto: Current Defense Minister, former army general and the founder of the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra), Prabowo has run for president multiple times, including in 2014 and 2019 against incumbent President Widodo. He has a significant political base and has been a key figure in Indonesian politics for many years. Notably, Subianto鈥檚 running mate is Gibran Rakabuming Raka, the eldest son of current President Jokowi.
• Ganjar Pranowo: Former Governor of Central Java, and candidate from the current governing party Partai Demokrasi Indonesia Perjuangan (PDI-P).
• Anies Baswedan: Former Governor of Jakarta and notably the most vocal critic of Jokowi鈥檚 policies. Baswedan opposes President Widodo鈥檚 initiative to move Indonesia鈥檚 capital from Jakarta to Nusantara.

Throughout his campaign, Mr. Subianto had pledged to uphold the continuity of President Widodo鈥檚 key existing policies.聽We anticipate policy continuity to largely prevail under Mr. Subianto, thereby allowing for regulatory and financial stability. Particularly, we expect policy continuity to be maintained in the following areas: 1) Commodity protectionism to develop the downstream commodity sector; 2) Prioritizing investment towards developing an EV ecosystem; 3) Prioritizing infrastructure development and the construction of the new capital Nusantara.

We summarize our views on the impact of Mr. Subianto鈥檚 impending presidency on the economy and key sectors of Indonesia.

1. Continued Commodity Protectionism

Commodity nationalism was a key facet of President Widodo鈥檚 presidency. Over the past few years, we saw Indonesia implement drastic export bans and restrictions on various commodities such as nickel, bauxite, and palm oil. Key reasons behind the export restrictions include to: 1) Develop the nation鈥檚 domestic processing industries and move up the value chain from exporting raw materials to producing and exporting value-added refined goods, that will also create jobs and boost the domestic economy; 2) Ensure the availability of key commodities for domestic consumption and to stabilize prices; 3) Ensure the availability of key metals that play a crucial role in green transition.