草莓流氓视频

• Interest coverage ratios (ICRs) are the metric we think should be the focus for investors looking to determine the health of issuers through this property cycle.聽We expect further ICR deterioration not only in 2024 but for years to come as issuers refinance legacy low-cost debt in a higher interest rate environment. This should be manageable for most issuers, though that hinges on the outlook for rates, and it鈥檚 not clear it will be manageable for names with near term refinancing needs, low EBITDA growth, and already low ICR ratios (HEIBOS, BPPEHX, SBBBSS, AKFAST).
• Development activity will continue to decline, and we expect shareholder returns to remain in-check which will help support cash flows in 2024.聽We except more equity raises are likely in 2024 as issuers address over-levered balanced sheets. Investment in standing portfolios remains a priority for most names, which is the right strategic decision given the implications for value preservation from modernization.

Growth remained solid in the European Real Estate sector YTD and we are optimistic on the outlook for growth in 2024, though performance will vary by subsector. We expect a similar trend this year, with growth to be strongest from the players that benefit from indexation of rents on the Continent though with a decline from 2023 given the deceleration in inflation in almost all major markets for our coverage universe (chart below). This will in particular benefit Logistics, well-positioned Office players, and Retailers with large exposure in Europe (as a reminder, lease dynamics in the UK differ). We again expect Residential growth to be slower, as was clearly the case in 2023 (see chart above), as rent regulation particularly in Germany and Sweden constrains rental income growth.

Residential: We estimate growth from the major resi operators in our coverage excluding AKFAST to range between 3-6% in 2024, with trends on average accelerating from 2023 but still lower than peers in other CRE subsectors. As we discussed in our聽Resi Market Chart Pack,聽rent聽regulation will continue to limit growth in the tenant friendly markets of Germany, Sweden and France. Given the importance of the German market in particular, we would flag ANNGR鈥檚 2023 guidance for organic rent growth of 3.7%-3.8% and early indications of 2024 organic growth >5% which we think is a useful indicator for the German resi market more broadly. The uptick in 2024 will be driven by several factors, including a detailed Mietspiegel in Berlin this year (see our聽recent ANNGR note聽for reference charts on the German regulatory regime and the timing of expected new Mietspiegel levels). We have not seen preliminary growth guidance from any of the Nordic names we cover, though BALDER recently reached an agreement with the Tenant Association in Stockholm for an average rent increase of 4.5% to take effect from early this year.

Regulatory regimes vary across Europe and key markets such as the UK and Finland are more landlord friendly, which should be more supportive of growth depending on supply/demand drivers. KOJAMO expects growth to improve in 2024 in its Finnish based portfolio in part due to lower levels of supply, which is encouraging for SATOYH/BALDER. AKFAST, which skews to unregulated North American markets, stands out givens its strong growth in 2023 and we expect it to remain an outlier in 2024.

Retail: The Retail names in our coverage universe delivered solid growth in 9M23, in part due to easy COVID comps to start the year. Given this dynamic, we expect growth to slow in 4Q and likely in 2024 though our base case is that headline growth remains solid聽as footfall improves more gradually to 2019 levels. We have been reassured by LIFP鈥檚 and ULFP鈥檚 color around their European operations, though dynamics in the UK and US are mixed. We also recognize that growth in 2024 is at higher risk of being impacted by a recession via sales-backed-rents and the health of the Retailers鈥� tenants more broadly. On the latter point, as we detailed in our聽cross sector piece聽with the Retail team published in September, OCRs increased in 1H23 due higher lease costs. However, footfall trends and color from landlords on their ability to push through rent hikes has reassured.